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Stock Market Timing

Best Time to Invest in Mutual Funds - The Best Months to Invest

When is the best time to invest in mutual funds, or the stock market in general. Because of the redemption fees on mutual funds, it can be harder to use market timing to manage the risk in your portfolio. But there are some seasonal influences that can be used to your advantage to help you decide when it’s best to invest in mutual funds, and when to go to cash.

Dow Theory - History of Dow Theory Stock Market Timing

One of the earliest examples of stock market timing was the Dow Theory. Dow Theory Market timing is actually pretty straightforward, but it’s complicated a little by the variations that have been added to it over the years. Here’s a quick history of the Dow Theory timing system, and where to find information on trading it today.

Fosback Seasonality Timing System

We would all like to have some edge when it comes to the markets. We have discussed some stock market timing approaches as one way to mitigate the market risk. However, one limitation almost all these market timing systems have is that they are the result of some type of backtesting or simulation. The result is that while it may look good on paper, it’s difficult to have much confidence in their real time performance until they develop something of a track record.

39 Week Moving Average - Does It Still Work?

There was another interesting article on Marketwatch today about the effectiveness of the old 39 week moving average as a market timing tool. You can read about it at Hulbert on the 39 Week Moving Average. The interesting thing is this was originally made popular by Doug Fabian in his old Telephone Switch Newsletter. His son, Dick Fabian, seems to have moved away from the basic tools made popular by his father, however, if you look at his track record, it seems that he would have been better served by sticking to what Dad taught him.

Seasonality

Lindsay at Wallstrip tackles seasonality….

Source: Michael Covel: Author of Trend Following

Sell in May and Go Away - Does it Work?

The first of May is upon us, and every financial journal seems to have some article about the merits of a seasonal strategy for getting in and out of the market. While there is something to be said for it’s performance long term, we’ve previously taken a look at the performance of seasonal trading with our portfolios, and adjusted it somewhat.